943
FXUS63 KDDC 082228
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY,
BEFORE MAINLY DRY WEATHER RESUMES SUNDAY.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG SWLY WINDS ACROSS SW KS,
GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH, AND A COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NW KS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ZONES 4-7 PM, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS, VARIOUS CAMS, AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AFTER 4 PM, MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED, WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND CAPE < 500 J/KG.
HIGH-BASED MARGINALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL MODE WILL BE
PREFERRED, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING OUTFLOW WINDS OF
50-60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. SPC MAINTAINS 5%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ON THE 1630Z UPDATE.
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SW KS TONIGHT,
BEFORE QUICKLY RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST SOUTHEAST OF DDC, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S. MODELS FORECAST SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THURSDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S, AND MUCAPE < 1000 J/KG. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
80S WILL ONCE AGAIN ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY 4 PM,
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE PREFERRED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, AS WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ALONG/NORTH OF K-96. AGAIN, LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR/FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE MODE
TO STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS, WITH AGAIN 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITY FROM SPC.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE FRONT IS SHOVED BACK SOUTH
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID, NBM POPS IN THE 70-80%
RANGE SEEM TOO HIGH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF US 50, AS THE COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 7 PM. FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE COOLEST NAM GUIDANCE, WITH THE I-70 CORRIDOR
REMAINING IN THE 50S, AND 60S NORTH OF US 50. ALSO NORTH OF
US 50, STRATUS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF FRIDAY, AS ELUDED
TO WITH NAM'S CLASSIC LIGHT QPF DRIZZLE SIGNATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE FRIDAY WHERE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE PREVAIL.
FRIDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
TRIPLE POINT FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION IN THE SE COLORADO, FAR
SW KS, NW PANHANDLES REGION, AS WELL AS EASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. NBM
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE, ALONG WITH CONTINUED
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND 5% SEVERE SPC PROBABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY FOR THESE SOUTHERN
ZONES, WITH DEWPOINTS IMPROVING INTO THE 50S, NAM FORECASTING
CAPE > 2000 J/KG, AND BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR CALIFORNIA.
NBM POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY,
SUPPORTED BY MEX GUIDANCE (POPS NEAR 70%). HOWEVER, GLOBAL
MODELS AND MANY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTS THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR WESTERN TEXAS
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN AM CONCERNED NBM POPS SATURDAY ARE TOO HIGH.
REGARDLESS, CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY, AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS,
INTERACTING WITH AT LEAST A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY, AS THE
FIRST WAVE EJECTS, AND A SUBSIDENT DRY SLOT INVADES SW KS.
THINKING IS MOST OF SW KS WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. UPPER
FORCING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH APPEARS TOO FAR REMOVED TO
SUPPORT A HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT, BUT CLEARLY ANY SEVERE RISK
WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE DRYLINE SUNDAY, ALONG
THE LINES OF SPC DAY 5 OUTLOOK.
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL EJECT ONTO THE
PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT OF COURSE
DIFFER ON DETAILS REGARDING SPEED AND AMPLITUDE, AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. STILL, AT LEAST SOME NBM POPS ARE INCLUDED,
ALONG WITH AN INHERENT SEVERE THREAT, PENDING TIMING OF
INGREDIENTS AND GIVEN APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND AROUND THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, BECOMING BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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