901
FXUS63 KDDC 091510
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1010 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS LIKELY WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
- CLOUDY AND DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
STRATUS, DRIZZLE AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD MANY PORTIONS
OF SW KS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH, NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER, AND POINTS SOUTH OF THERE.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID. SCATTERED
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SUNDAY WINDY WARMER AND DRY, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- MONDAY WINDY WARM AND DRY IN THE 80S. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER EXPECTED.
- TUESDAY HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD
AND BECOME DEEPLY MIXED AND THINNED IN THE VERTICAL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. A FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR LIBERAL. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS, WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND HAYS. THE NAM IS WAY TOO MOIST GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE,
THIS MODEL IS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY. EXPECT CAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AS OPPOSED TO 1500 J/KG. HAIL AS
LARGE AS QUARTERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
ARE GIVEN DEEP INVERTED-VF PROFILES.
A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO KANSAS ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR IS PREDICTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOCATIONS NEARER THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE MAY REACH INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AT MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER.
THE NBM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. SO DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN FROM DODGE CITY NORTH AND WEST. THE STORMS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA STATE LINE MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE; BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE THESE COULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE IF THE FRONTAL
PUSH IS STRONGER, WHICH IS NORMALLY THE CASE.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
TAP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BEING IT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR LAPSE RATES AND
NO WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENTS. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL A POSSIBILITY; BUT SEVERE WEATHER(AT LEAST THE HIGH-END
VARIETY) IS UNLIKELY.
BY SUNDAY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS. A POORLY DEFINED
DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR HIGH
PLAINS. BY THIS TIME, THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BEGIN
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOSTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER INSTABILITY
BUT STRONGER CAPPING. IF A STORM DEVELOPS IT WOULD LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 37TH PARALLEL GIVEN
THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING THAT WOULD INCREASE CONVERGENCE
FARTHER NORTH.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM HAYS SOUTHWARD TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND DRY LINE CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. STORMS MAY STILL BE ISOLATED MONDAY AS THE PRIMARY
FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GIVEN A
THICKNESS RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STRONG CAPPING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ON TUESDAY; BUT IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW FAR WEST THE DRY LINE WILL BE. CENTRAL KANSAS HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. AND THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY AND THE EXACT TIMING, WHICH DICTATES LOCATIONS OF STORMS,
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL DO NOT HOW SIGNALS OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR .5"
OR GREATER 50-80% AT PRATT BUT ONLY 10-20% IN SYRACUSE AND
ULYSSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS
THROUGH 00Z FRI, GUSTING 25-30 KTS. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z FRI, WITH VARIABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE 00-06Z FRI TIME FRAME, AND INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION
IN ALL TAFS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT TO THE AIRPORTS, GUSTING 20-25 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL IMPACT AVIATION FRIDAY,
WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR/-RA BY
12Z FRI.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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