865
FXUS63 KDDC 091700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS LIKELY WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
- CLOUDY AND DRAMATICALLY COLDER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
STRATUS, DRIZZLE AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD MANY PORTIONS
OF SW KS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH, NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER, AND POINTS SOUTH OF THERE.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID. SCATTERED
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SUNDAY WINDY WARMER AND DRY, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- MONDAY WINDY WARM AND DRY IN THE 80S. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER EXPECTED.
- TUESDAY HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS CONFIRMED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD
RETREATED NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AS EXPECTED, WITH A
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BUILD THROUGH 7 PM, WITH NAM FORECASTING 1000-2000 J/KG
FOCUSING ON THE NORTHERN ZONES, ALONG AND NORTH OF K-96, BY
7 PM. MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING, AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 7 PM, MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF DODGE CITY. BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION, WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT
AGAIN LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL KEEP RISKS LIMITED TO MAINLY
1-2 INCH HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
COLD FRONT AGGRESSIVELY PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER, AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES GREATLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLDEST 12Z
MET/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S FRIDAY DAYTIME, WITH STRATUS, DRIZZLE, COLD ADVECTION,
AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALL HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A STRATUS/DRIZZLE SETUP IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
ENCOURAGE A HAIL THREAT AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY'S TEMPORARY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHOVED RAPIDLY OUT OF
SW KS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, VERY
WINDY, MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID. SOUTH WINDS WILL EASILY GUST
OVER 40 MPH, STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE. STRATUS, DRIZZLE AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY IN THE STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING/CAPE, A
MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY SPC. MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF SW KS
SATURDAY.
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES, REPLACING STRONG SOUTH HUMID WINDS, WITH STRONG MUCH
DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS. NBM POPS HAVE A SHARP REDUCTION IN POPS
SUNDAY, WHICH IS CORRECT WITH THE LOSS OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WOULD FOCUS ON THE DRYLINE SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY, PER
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK. MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE SWLY
WINDS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S SUNDAY.
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY EJECT THROUGH THE GRAND CANYON TUESDAY MORNING, AND
REACH SW KS IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION TUESDAY EVENING. NBM
POPS ARE NEAR ZERO MONDAY, WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY REMAINING
SOUTHEAST OF BARBER COUNTY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM, WELL INTO
THE 80S, AND WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY FALLING TO
10-15%, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TUESDAY CAREFULLY, AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF SW KS WILL HOLD ONTO DRY SW
WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, BUT THE DRYLINE MAY GET PULLED WEST
INTO THE EASTERN ZONES/CENTRAL KANSAS, IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND HIGH END HAIL/TORNADO RISK.
CLEARLY, 5 DAYS AWAY, MESOSCALE/MORNING CONVECTION INFLUENCES
ARE UNKNOWN. QUIET DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS
THROUGH 00Z FRI, GUSTING 25-30 KTS. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z FRI, WITH VARIABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE 00-06Z FRI TIME FRAME, AND INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION
IN ALL TAFS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT TO THE AIRPORTS, GUSTING 20-25 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL IMPACT AVIATION FRIDAY,
WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR/-RA BY
12Z FRI.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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