318
FXUS63 KDDC 100504
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN
- STRATUS AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID. SCATTERED
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON/EVENING
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS CONFIRMED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD
RETREATED NORTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AS EXPECTED, WITH A
TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BUILD THROUGH 7 PM, WITH NAM FORECASTING 1000-2000 J/KG
FOCUSING ON THE NORTHERN ZONES, ALONG AND NORTH OF K-96, BY
7 PM. MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING, AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 7 PM, MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF DODGE CITY. BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION, WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT
AGAIN LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL KEEP RISKS LIMITED TO MAINLY
1-2 INCH HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
COLD FRONT AGGRESSIVELY PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER, AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES GREATLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLDEST 12Z
MET/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S FRIDAY DAYTIME, WITH STRATUS, DRIZZLE, COLD ADVECTION,
AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALL HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A STRATUS/DRIZZLE SETUP IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
ENCOURAGE A HAIL THREAT AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY'S TEMPORARY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHOVED RAPIDLY OUT OF
SW KS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, VERY
WINDY, MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID. SOUTH WINDS WILL EASILY GUST
OVER 40 MPH, STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE. STRATUS, DRIZZLE AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY IN THE STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING/CAPE, A
MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY SPC. MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF SW KS
SATURDAY.
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES, REPLACING STRONG SOUTH HUMID WINDS, WITH STRONG MUCH
DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS. NBM POPS HAVE A SHARP REDUCTION IN POPS
SUNDAY, WHICH IS CORRECT WITH THE LOSS OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WOULD FOCUS ON THE DRYLINE SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY, PER
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK. MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE SWLY
WINDS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S SUNDAY.
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY EJECT THROUGH THE GRAND CANYON TUESDAY MORNING, AND
REACH SW KS IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION TUESDAY EVENING. NBM
POPS ARE NEAR ZERO MONDAY, WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY REMAINING
SOUTHEAST OF BARBER COUNTY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM, WELL INTO
THE 80S, AND WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY FALLING TO
10-15%, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TUESDAY CAREFULLY, AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF SW KS WILL HOLD ONTO DRY SW
WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, BUT THE DRYLINE MAY GET PULLED WEST
INTO THE EASTERN ZONES/CENTRAL KANSAS, IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND HIGH END HAIL/TORNADO RISK.
CLEARLY, 5 DAYS AWAY, MESOSCALE/MORNING CONVECTION INFLUENCES
ARE UNKNOWN. QUIET DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15+ KTS.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT KDDC THROUGH 09Z. LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SO THAT LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z AT KDDC/KGCK AND KHYS. THE FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER AT KLBL, WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 16-17Z.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY AT KDDC
AND KHYS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER 00Z IF NOT ALREADY THERE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...FINCH
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