539
FXUS63 KDDC 101011
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, TODAY
WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY SKIES.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- GENERALLY WARM WEATHER IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS THIS MORNING. WITH PLENTIFUL
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY FOR MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH MILDER 60S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING, CHANCES OF T-STORMS SHIFT GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN THE COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT; BUT IT IS OFTEN A STRUGGLE
ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO GET MOISTURE TO EXTEND DEEP ENOUGH FOR
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KANSAS IN THE WARM SECTOR; AND ANY
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE RATON MESA WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS TONIGHT, SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM DODGE CITY NORTH
AND EAST TO HAYS AND LARNED. ON SATURDAY, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST; BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE SEVERE.
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS; BUT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF HERE, WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AT MEDICINE LODGE AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LINE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
VERY WEAK SO THAT STORMS MAY NOT FORM AT ALL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE TUESDAY EVENING ALONG A DRY
LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS; BUT BY THIS TIME THE MAIN FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE WELL EAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET AGL WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TODAY AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THESE LOW CLOUDS EARLY
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FEET AGL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL THEN FALL BACK TO LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
PREVAILING WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ALL THREE DAYS. HIGH-END FIRE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DRY
INTRUSION DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE DRY INTRUSION. GIVEN THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
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