122
FXUS63 KDDC 101510
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1010 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND DRAMATICALLY COOLER FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS, WARMER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY, SUNNY, WINDY AND WARMER, WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- DRY WARM AND WINDY WITH CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS THIS MORNING. WITH PLENTIFUL
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY FOR MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH MILDER 60S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING, CHANCES OF T-STORMS SHIFT GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN THE COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT; BUT IT IS OFTEN A STRUGGLE
ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO GET MOISTURE TO EXTEND DEEP ENOUGH FOR
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KANSAS IN THE WARM SECTOR; AND ANY
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE RATON MESA WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS TONIGHT, SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM DODGE CITY NORTH
AND EAST TO HAYS AND LARNED. ON SATURDAY, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST; BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE SEVERE.
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS; BUT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF HERE, WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AT MEDICINE LODGE AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LINE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
VERY WEAK SO THAT STORMS MAY NOT FORM AT ALL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE TUESDAY EVENING ALONG A DRY
LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS; BUT BY THIS TIME THE MAIN FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE WELL EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS PERSISTING. REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BR/FG/DZ CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
06-12Z SAT, AND LOWERED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 SM IN THE TAFS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER SW KS OVERNIGHT, AND INCLUDED VCTS/CB
MENTIONS TO COVER. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 15Z SAT, BUT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 15Z SAT,
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING
35-40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ALL THREE DAYS. HIGH-END FIRE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DRY
INTRUSION DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE DRY INTRUSION. GIVEN THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...TURNER
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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