221
FXUS63 KDDC 101700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND DRAMATICALLY COOLER FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS, WARMER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY, SUNNY, WINDY AND WARMER, WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- DRY WARM AND WINDY WITH CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS CONFIRMED THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY HOLD THROUGH SUNSET, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND THE DAY STRUGGLING IN THE 40S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. COLDEST NAM IS VERIFYING WELL, WITH ONLY SOME
LOCATIONS ACHIEVING LOWER 50S. AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNSET, ONCE RAIN EXITS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF
SW KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF SW KS, BUT 12Z NAM DOES
SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNSET AS A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ORGANIZES NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OBVIOUSLY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ERASED IN SW KS IN
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR, BUT 12Z NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE
INCREASING ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG TONIGHT. ANY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN TONIGHT'S ENVIRONMENT WOULD PRODUCE
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EASILY, AND THE MARGINAL 5% HAIL
PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY SPC. AREAS OF FOG AND WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TRENDING SOUTHEAST BY MORNING.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION, IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR BLACK
HILLS, SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTER NOON, SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
25 MPH SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S, AND WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
RETURN WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ANYTIME IN THIS AIRMASS, BUT WITH FOCUSING MECHANISMS
NEBULOUS, KEPT POPS RESTRICTED TO THE LOWER END CHANCE CATEGORY.
STRONGEST STORMS SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS, BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SW KS, IN WEST TEXAS.
THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN ZONES OR CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, SUNSHINE WILL RETURN, AND
WITH STRONG SWLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 80S. MOS WIND GUIDANCE IS STRONGER THAN NBM, WITH EXPECTED
WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES, SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY, WHERE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS POSSIBLE AT PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. CONVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE SUFFICIENT ON THE DRYLINE FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND THE
DRYLINE MAY BE EAST OF BARBER COUNTY ANYWAY.
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE GREAT
BASIN 7 PM MONDAY, AND WITH STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW, DRY WINDY
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RESULT. NBM MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH TO CREATE CRITICAL WILDFIRE RISK.
AFTER MONDAY, MODELS ARE HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH WAVE PHASING AND
TIMING ISSUES, AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE PLAINS. AS
SUCH, SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IN
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THAT SAID, WITH A WEAKENING/OPENING TREND
WITH THE PARENT TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THE DRYLINE
WILL BE EAST OF SW KS THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH WILL KEEP DRY SW
WINDS PREVAILING, AND CONTINUE THE WILDFIRE DANGER PER SPC FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOKS. DRY FORECAST FROM THE NBM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOKS APPROPRIATE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS PERSISTING. REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BR/FG/DZ CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
06-12Z SAT, AND LOWERED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 SM IN THE TAFS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER SW KS OVERNIGHT, AND INCLUDED VCTS/CB
MENTIONS TO COVER. VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 15Z SAT, BUT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. AFTER 15Z SAT,
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING
35-40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ALL THREE DAYS. HIGH-END FIRE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DRY
INTRUSION DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE DRY INTRUSION. GIVEN THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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