722
FXUS63 KDDC 102217
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
517 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND DRAMATICALLY COOLER FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS, WARMER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY, SUNNY, WINDY AND WARMER, WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- DRY WARM AND WINDY WITH CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS CONFIRMED THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED COLD
FRONT HAD CLEARED THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY HOLD THROUGH SUNSET, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND THE DAY STRUGGLING IN THE 40S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. COLDEST NAM IS VERIFYING WELL, WITH ONLY SOME
LOCATIONS ACHIEVING LOWER 50S. AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNSET, ONCE RAIN EXITS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF
SW KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF SW KS, BUT 12Z NAM DOES
SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNSET AS A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ORGANIZES NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OBVIOUSLY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ERASED IN SW KS IN
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR, BUT 12Z NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE
INCREASING ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG TONIGHT. ANY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN TONIGHT'S ENVIRONMENT WOULD PRODUCE
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EASILY, AND THE MARGINAL 5% HAIL
PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY SPC. AREAS OF FOG AND WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TRENDING SOUTHEAST BY MORNING.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION, IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR BLACK
HILLS, SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTER NOON, SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
25 MPH SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S, AND WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
RETURN WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ANYTIME IN THIS AIRMASS, BUT WITH FOCUSING MECHANISMS
NEBULOUS, KEPT POPS RESTRICTED TO THE LOWER END CHANCE CATEGORY.
STRONGEST STORMS SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS, BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SW KS, IN WEST TEXAS.
THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN ZONES OR CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, SUNSHINE WILL RETURN, AND
WITH STRONG SWLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 80S. MOS WIND GUIDANCE IS STRONGER THAN NBM, WITH EXPECTED
WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES, SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY, WHERE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS POSSIBLE AT PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. CONVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE SUFFICIENT ON THE DRYLINE FOR STORMS TO FORM, AND THE
DRYLINE MAY BE EAST OF BARBER COUNTY ANYWAY.
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE GREAT
BASIN 7 PM MONDAY, AND WITH STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW, DRY WINDY
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL RESULT. NBM MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH TO CREATE CRITICAL WILDFIRE RISK.
AFTER MONDAY, MODELS ARE HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH WAVE PHASING AND
TIMING ISSUES, AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE PLAINS. AS
SUCH, SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IN
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. THAT SAID, WITH A WEAKENING/OPENING TREND
WITH THE PARENT TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THE DRYLINE
WILL BE EAST OF SW KS THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH WILL KEEP DRY SW
WINDS PREVAILING, AND CONTINUE THE WILDFIRE DANGER PER SPC FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOKS. DRY FORECAST FROM THE NBM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOKS APPROPRIATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT AT ALL SITES WITH BR LOWERING VISIBILITIES AT DDC, GCK,
AND HYS. AROUND 4Z, THE BR WILL INTENSIFY TO FG AND DROP
VISIBILITIES FURTHER AT DDC AND HYS. ENSEMBLES HAVE HYS AND DDC
REACHING 1/4 MILES, WITH GCK ALONG THE GRADIENT WITH UNCERTAIN
DENSITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3 SO 1 MILE WAS SELECTED FOR THE TAF.
BY 6Z, LBL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH,
BUT LIGHTNING CHANCES REMAIN <10% VIA ENSEMBLES. BY AROUND 14Z,
FG/BR WILL DISSIPATE AND VISIBILITIES WILL RECOVER WHILE
CEILINGS LIFT. SHORTLY AFTER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN. WINDS WILL START WEAK OUT OF THE EAST AND END OUT OF THE
SOUTH AS THEY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO
NEAR 40 MPH, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA. SUNDAY, THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN ZONES. WEST OF THE DRYLINE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. WEST OF US 83, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% IS EXPECTED. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
PUB/GLD, ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WESTERN SIX
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WILDFIRE RISK WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DRYLINE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-20%, AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG WARNINGS
WILL BE REQUIRED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...KBJ
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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