273
FXUS63 KDDC 111907
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE LATE THIS
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS QUITE LOW.
- THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED ON AREAS MAINLY EAST OF OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
KEEPING OUR AREA WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND INCREASED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER RISK.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAYS AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC GULF MOISTURE.
THIS ISN'T EXACTLY A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN GIVEN THE
FORMIDABLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INVOLVED. SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS
MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
BUT THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG CAP AHEAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
LATER ON THIS EVENING, THE BEST SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ONE OR TWO SMALL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ONE
SUCH MCS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN ONE HALF TO ONE THIRD OF THE DDC
CWA, SO WE WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST FROM ROUGHLY ARKANSAS RIVER SOUTH
TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE TONIGHT (30-40%). THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STEAK WILL ADVANCE EAST ON SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL PUT
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MORNING
DISTURBANCE WHILE A LARGER DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MATURE MUCH FARTHER
WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL
ADJUST TO THE NEXT LARGER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, SO WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHER DEWPOINTS FARTHER EAST, AND
GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE, THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST
FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED PRETTY FAR TO THE EAST SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND WE WILL WATCH FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF AN
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK. THIS MORNING'S CAMS AND EVEN NON-
CAM MODELS SHOW A VERY POOR CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT
WE WILL CARRY SOME 15 TO 20% POPS ACROSS THE RED HILLS GIVEN SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE (>2000 J/KG)
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES.
OF MORE CONCERN IN THIS PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY AS
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL BE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRETTY FAR TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN A WARMER AIR MASS AND
ALLOWING LOW CEILING TO ERODE. DDC, GCK, HYS, AND LBL TERMINALS
WILL ALL BE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP, HOWEVER THE ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THUS, WE WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS FOR OUR FOUR AIRPORTS, AT LEAST UNTIL
THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR
ANY OF DDC, GCK, HYS, OR LBL AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY
FAR SOUTHWEST WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY
ACROSS A LARGER AREA OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
ON SUNDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE PLUME WILL ADVANCE ON
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT STRONGER WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WE HAVE ADDED IN HASKELL AND
SEWARD COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 83, HOWEVER, AS THERE IS SOME
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVANCING
TOWARD HIGHWAY 83 TO THE SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY. WE WILL KEEP THE
HEADLINE AS A WATCH FOR NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE BOTH MORE CONCERNING FOR WIDER SPREAD
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLASSIC, DRY SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM PUSH IS
LIKELY SOUTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MATURE, AND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP THE STRONGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS FARTHER SOUTH,
BUT FOR NOW, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 AND ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SET UP, BUT WE WILL
NOT HOIST A WATCH FOR TUESDAY YET WITH THE FOCUS MORE ON THE
SHORT TERM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...UMSCHEID
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