084
FXUS63 KDDC 121916
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS ALL 27 COUNTIES
OF THE NWS DODGE CITY AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THE FIRST STORM AS ALL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A SECOND LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS (15% PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FROM
SPC VALID FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF KANSAS)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE NEW WEEK AS BACK-TO-BACK SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE FIRST SYSTEM
COMING OUT MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED FIRE
WEATHER RISK (DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AS THE
MAIN GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD TOO FAR TO THE EAST
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EVEN OUR RED HILLS COUNTIES COMANCHE AND
BARBER. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA DOWN TOWARD WICHITA TO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA (AND BEYOND
INTO TEXAS). THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE SYSTEM AS IT ADVANCES EAST IS
THE PRIMARY REASON WHY THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN SO FAR TO THE EAST AS
THIS STORM COMES OUT. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT, THIS MEANS
A VERY WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST WIND OFF THE NEW MEXICO HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (AROUND 90/LOWER 90S IN THE TYPICALLY HOTTER RED HILLS
REGION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE).
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT MID-WEEK AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY WITH QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER (LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES). THIS QUIET WEATHER WILL BE FLEETING
AS THE NEXT LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING ITS RUN ON THE GREAT
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A LARGER SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE TILT TO THE TROUGH AXIS TO ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO
PULL BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE MOISTURE QUALITY EAST OF THE
DEVELOPING DRYLINE FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY GOOD -- SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S (DEGF) SUPPORTING HIGH
CAPE FOR SEVERE (AND EVEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE) THUNDERSTORMS. DRYLINE
POSITION LATE FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL, AS USUAL, FOR HOT/DRY
FORECAST VS. VERY WARM/MOIST/SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST. SINCE FRIDAY
IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THAT BEING SAID, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
HAVE A 15% PROBABILISTIC SEVERE OUTLOOK EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS A
COLDWATER TO LARNED LINE. THIS WOULD BE A ONE-SHOT RISK (FRIDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH QUICKLY
FRIDAY EVENING, PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE WAY OUT OF OUR REGION THE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
BROAD, DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS AN
INTENSE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THUS,
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED (OTHER THAN LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN SUNSET AND
SUNRISE) AS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS REMAINS IN THE WARM/DRY SECTOR
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON'S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING AS OF 19Z WITH HUGOTON AND ELKHART STATIONS SHOWING
8% RH AND WIND GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS. THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AN ULYSSES TO TO
SUBLETTE TO MEADE LINE BEFORE THE SUN GETS LOW AND DEEP MIXING
(HIGHER WIND GUSTS) ABATES. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OUT
WEST CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS APPROACH TOWARD KANSAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OUT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST KANSAS WELL WITHIN THE
HOT/DRY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEADING TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
MONDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING (ALL COUNTIES) AND INTRODUCED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (ALL COUNTIES) TUESDAY. TUESDAY'S WIND GUSTS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH ALONG THE KANSAS-
NEBRASKA LINE. VERY DEEP MIXING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
WIND GUSTS 40+ MPH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...UMSCHEID
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