550
FXUS63 KDDC 132133
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM. ALL 27 COUNTIES OF NWS DDC
AREA WILL REMAIN IN RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCH (TO BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING) TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AHEAD OF THE SECOND
LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 WHERE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN.
- SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF NWS DODGE CITY AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SECOND, LARGER AND STRONGER STORM SYSTEM.
SPC 15% PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EAST OF
A COLDWATER TO LARNED LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE CENTER OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS COLORADO, INDUCING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT GRADIENT 850MB THROUGH 700MB ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEEP MIXING THROUGH 3KM AGL
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS, SO WE HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR 75TH PERCENTILE
WINDS OFF THE NBM FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION. THE SAME
GOES FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, FAVORING 75TH PERCENTILE GIVEN
CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITION, RESULTING IN HIGHS TUESDAY UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DDC CWA.
ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN STRONG WINDS IN BETWEEN STORM
SYSTEMS, BUT THE NEXT INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE LARGER IN SCOPE
AND A BIT STRONGER, SO WE WILL BEGIN SEEING SURFACE RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT STORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH
REDEVELOP AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. AS THE 850MB AND 700MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT INCREASES, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE,
AND WE WILL SEE THESE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN STRONGER GUSTS
AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE A WARM WIND, SO HIGHS WELL
INTO THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN
THE TYPICALLY HOT LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE RED HILLS.
THROUGH ALL THIS TIME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL REMAIN EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA,
BUT GIVEN JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN COUNTY-LEVEL DETAIL OF DRYLINE
POSITION, WE WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE RED HILLS REGION
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM FULLY CLEARS OUR REGION. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE BY THURSDAY AS THE MSLP PATTERN
UNDERGOES A READJUSTMENT IN BETWEEN STORMS. THE DRYLINE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO REFORM FARTHER WEST ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LARGER STORM
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESHAPED DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN UP
AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY CLASSIC LOOKING SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DDC CWA. THE LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
FRIDAY INCLUDES A 15% OUTLOOK FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS, EAST OF ROUGHLY
COLDWATER TO LARNED LINE, FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER RISKS INCLUDING
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
AFTER FRIDAY EVENING SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHIFTS EAST OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH SOME
TIME FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. A STABLE/QUIET
WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW, ALBEIT WINDY AND CHILLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING 30-35 KTS
AS OF 2130Z, WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AT SUNSET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH 12Z TUE.
AFTER 15Z TUE, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
AIRPORTS, AVERAGING NEAR 25 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TURNER
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