922
FXUS63 KDDC 141009
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY; CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
- VARYING LEVELS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE APPROACH OF TROUGH.
WITH EFFICIENT MIXING, EXPECT AREA-WIDE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-50 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS IS WHERE TRAVEL COULD BECOME
RATHER DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AND GREATEST FIRE
SPREAD OF ANY POTENTIAL FIRES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE PRETTY SPARSE. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT OF THE DRY LINE WILL
DICTATE THE LEVEL OF CONVECTION THAT COULD OCCUR WITHIN OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. FOR TODAY, SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST ON
PLACEMENT THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY CASE, THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR FAR EAST WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 20-30% POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF
STORM OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE
PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY,
BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, DRY LINE
PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY AND POPS ARE FAVORED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
(20-40%). GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY HAVE THIS WAVE EJECTING
WITH A MORE NEUTRAL ORIENTATION. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW SOME
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THOUGH IF THIS WOULD BE ABLE TO
COME OUT MORE NEGATIVE, A HIGHER-END SEVERE RISK COULD BE
REALIZED. UNTIL THEN FOR NOW, SPC CONTINUES TO CARRY A 15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY TOUCHING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40 TO 45 KNOTS
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND SHIFTS
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RH VALUES WILL BE 10-20% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL REGARDING HOW DRY IT WILL BE AS IT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DRY LINE PLACEMENT IS. SOME
GUIDANCE IS A TAD FURTHER WEST, BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
THE STRONG WINDS, KEEPING EVERYONE IN THE WARNING.
WE LOOK TO GET A BIT OF A REPRIEVE ON WEDNESDAY FROM FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED WEAKER WINDS, BUT RH VALUES
WILL STILL BE QUITE LOW. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER RISK WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN PLACE FOR
AREAS WEST OF ROUTE 283. THIS IS THE ZONE WITH THE BEST OVERLAP
OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 25 MPH AND GREATER AND RH VALUES
15% OR LESS. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS, BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL HAVE THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF ANY POTENTIAL FIRES BEING
ABLE TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BENNETT
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