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FXUS63 KDDC 141616
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1116 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY; CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
- VARYING LEVELS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE APPROACH OF TROUGH.
WITH EFFICIENT MIXING, EXPECT AREA-WIDE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-50 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS IS WHERE TRAVEL COULD BECOME
RATHER DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AND GREATEST FIRE
SPREAD OF ANY POTENTIAL FIRES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE PRETTY SPARSE. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT OF THE DRY LINE WILL
DICTATE THE LEVEL OF CONVECTION THAT COULD OCCUR WITHIN OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. FOR TODAY, SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST ON
PLACEMENT THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY CASE, THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR FAR EAST WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 20-30% POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF
STORM OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE
PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY,
BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN, DRY LINE
PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY AND POPS ARE FAVORED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
(20-40%). GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY HAVE THIS WAVE EJECTING
WITH A MORE NEUTRAL ORIENTATION. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW SOME
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THOUGH IF THIS WOULD BE ABLE TO
COME OUT MORE NEGATIVE, A HIGHER-END SEVERE RISK COULD BE
REALIZED. UNTIL THEN FOR NOW, SPC CONTINUES TO CARRY A 15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY TOUCHING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
BY SUNSET WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST,
PARTICULARLY AT GCK AND LBL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, PICKING BACK UP IN SPEED MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. ALL FOUR AIRPORTS GCK, DDC, LBL, AND HYS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, SO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE ALONG
WITH NEAR-ZERO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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