646
FXUS63 KDDC 150436
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ON
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH'S DOWN TO 15%
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY TO AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AS DRY SOUTH WINDS RESUME WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE DAY LIKELY WEST OF THE
DRYLINE ON FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283) WITH SEVERE
WEATHER RISK EAST OF THE DRYLINE (15% COMBINED SEVERE OUTLOOK
EAST OF COLDWATER TO GREAT BEND LINE)
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY
MORNING AS COLD AIR MASS DRIVES SOUTH BEHIND SIGNIFICANT
SPRING STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
SPRING STORM SYSTEM #1 OF 2 CONTINUED ITS APPROACH ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH-COLORADO LINE AS OF 1730Z. THE
ENHANCED, LARGER SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE APPROACHING
WAVE WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO
OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THE DRYLINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR DDC CWA (SOUTHEASTERN BARBER COUNTY)
SUCH THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY IF ANY LEFT-MOVING
SPLITS OFF OF ANY SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN OK CLIPS BARBER COUNTY.
ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END BY MID-LATE EVENING AS THE LARGER
SCALE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PUSH EAST TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE STORM, MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE, SUCH THAT LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO BUMP WINDS UP ABOVE NBM BASELINE TO NBM75TH
PERCENTILE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF 90TH PERCENTILE INFLUENCE MUCH OF
THE DAY (RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WIND FORECAST OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS).
ON THURSDAY, THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN RESPONDING TO THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM -- A LARGER SCALE SYSTEM WITH DEEPER SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
FULLY MATURE BY FRIDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE INVOLVED
WITH FRIDAY'S STORM UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WILL
DRIVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
RESHAPED DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
(LIKELY POSITIONED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND PRATT) BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
RESULT IN FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS -- SETTING THE STAGE
FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. THE WESTERN
EDGE/EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
WILL LIKELY INCLUDE AT LEAST THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ONE-THIRD OF
THE DDC CWA, AND SPC HAS MAINTAINED A 15% OUTLOOK FROM ROUGHLY
COLDWATER TO GREAT BEND AND POINTS EAST (HIGHER 30% OUTLOOK JUST
EAST OF OUR DDC CWA).
AN INTENSE COLD FRONT WITH VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE AND SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING, AND
MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF
POTENTIAL HIGH WIND AT THE ONSET OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT YET REFLECT THIS, BUT LOOK FOR THE WIND FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY) AS
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT INCREASES.
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY BEHIND THE INTENSE SPRING STORM, BUT SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FREEZE HEADLINES
SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME LLWS AND SHARP WSHFT HAVE LED UP TO THE START OF THE PERIOD,
BUT NOT FORECAST TO LAST PAST 6Z. IN THE EARLY HOURS, WINDS WILL
SETTLE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS. BY AROUND 1Z WINDS
WILL WEAKEN DRASTICALLY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SKIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KBJ
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