391
FXUS63 KDDC 151734
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS,
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY EAST TO HIGHWAY
183 CORRIDOR. FIRE WEATHER WATCH BEING UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING.
- FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FRIDAY WILL
REDUCE AREAL EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS
WELL AS REDUCING OR PERHAPS EVEN ELIMINATING SEVERE WEATHER
RISK ACROSS OUR 27-COUNTY NWS DODGE CITY AREA ENTIRELY.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY
MORNING AS COLD AIR MASS DRIVES SOUTH BEHIND SIGNIFICANT
SPRING STORM SYSTEM.
- CONTINUED SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER RISK INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TODAY (WEDNESDAY) WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RATHER QUIET DAY IN
BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. IN THE WAKE OF STORM SYSTEM #1, MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
MUCH LARGER STORM SYSTEM #2, WHICH BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH-COLORADO LINE. THE DIFFERENCE WITH STORM
#2 IS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS, OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONGER THAN
NORMAL DENSITY CURRENT WILL DEVELOP, ALLOWING VERY INTENSE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT, AND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH
VERY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN QUICKER WITH
THE FRONT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, WHICH IS A TYPICAL BEHAVIOR
AS MODELS CATCH UP TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR MASS INVOLVED AS
WELL AS STRENGTH OF DENSITY CURRENT. GIVEN THAT, WE WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET IN GUSTS
(58+ MPH) FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN STRONGEST INITIAL MSLP RISES
(UPWARDS OF +8 OR MORE MB/3HR).
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT, BUT GIVEN
FASTER COLD FRONT, INITIATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOW BE ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES STAFFORD-PRATT-BARBER AREA, OR PERHAPS EVEN
EAST OF THERE JUST EAST OF OUR DDC CWA. THE LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE GRADIENT IN PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER/STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSH
IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY ROBUST TEMPERATURE
DROP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WELL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WITH 28F OR LESS GENERALLY WEST OF ROUGHLY LIBERAL TO GARDEN
CITY TO WAKEENEY. AFTER INITIAL COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
NWS OFFICES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WE HAVE CONSIDERED
ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORICALLY WARM START TO THIS
SPRING SEASON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS OF FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. BY EARLY EVENING, WINDS
WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 6 KNOTS, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO CONTINUED WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY, AND AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WE WILL
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND ALSO
ADD IN MORE COUNTIES -- EAST TO A HAYS TO COLDWATER LINE. GIVEN
THE FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH, AND GIVEN
CONTINUED FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN COLD FRONT TIMING, WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER A RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE A
RETURN TO WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW RH'S
DOWN TO 8 TO 15% FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST, WEST
CENTRAL, AND EVEN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...UMSCHEID
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