252
FXUS63 KDDC 291647
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1147 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE DAYTIME THURSDAY, FAVORING
AREAS NORTH OF US-50 AND WEST OF US-283.
- WEATHER PATTERN FLIP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NORTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS,
NV. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD, SUPPORTING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER INCREASING PROBABILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. HREF MEMBERS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT INDICATING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RESIDE OVER LOCATIONS NORTH OF US-50 AND
WEST OF US-283, WHERE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO
0.1" OF QPF ARE IN THE 50-80% RANGE, BUT DECREASE WITH EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT. GIVEN LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS RIDGING BUILDS
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ON
FRIDAY FAVORING AREAS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AS MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
HOWEVER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE NEXT SYNOPTIC WAVE
COULD EMERGE ONTO THE WESTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE GIVEN SEVERELY LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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