269
FXUS63 KDDC 300505
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1205 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY, FAVORING AREAS
NORTH OF US-50 AND WEST OF US-283.
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLIP THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS NOTED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT
AREAS. KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO TRICKLE INTO WESTERN KS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
IMPULSES APPROACH, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY
HREF MEMBERS. HOWEVER, QPF WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST, WITH LOCATIONS
NORTH OF US-50 AND WEST OF US-283 FAVORED FOR THE MOST RAINFALL
AS HREF PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1" IS IN
THE 50-90% RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-50S OUT WEST TO THE MID-60S ALONG
OUR EASTERN ZONES.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST LINGERING PRECIPITATION
FAVORING AREAS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER MAY EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS NORTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN ASCENT, BUT
HREF PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1" IS 50% OR
LESS FOR ALL ZONES, SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY, SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR SOUTHWEST KS, HOWEVER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE THE DRIVER OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
INCREASING FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID-80S ON MONDAY IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND MID-WEEK, BUT
PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE IS VERY LIMITED, RENDERING
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SCENARIO LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
MATERIALIZE/TRICKLE INTO SOUTHWEST KS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA, AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT DDC, GCK,
AND HYS, BRINGING MVFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNSET THURSDAY, WITH VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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