332
FXUS63 KDDC 301650
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1150 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY, FAVORING AREAS
NORTH OF US-50 AND WEST OF US-283.
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLIP THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS NOTED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN
AND ADJACENT AREAS. KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO TRICKLE INTO WESTERN KS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK IMPULSES APPROACH, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO DAYTIME
THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY HREF MEMBERS. HOWEVER, QPF WILL BE
LIMITED AT BEST, WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF US-50 AND WEST OF
US-283 FAVORED FOR THE MOST RAINFALL AS HREF PROBABILITY OF QPF
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1" IS IN THE 50-90% RANGE ACROSS THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE, OVERCAST SKIES AND PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-50S
OUT WEST TO THE MID-60S ALONG OUR EASTERN ZONES.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST LINGERING PRECIPITATION
FAVORING AREAS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER MAY EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS NORTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN ASCENT, BUT
HREF PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1" IS 50% OR
LESS FOR ALL ZONES, SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY, SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR SOUTHWEST KS, HOWEVER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT MONDAY. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS INCREASING FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID-80S ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND MID-
WEEK, BUT PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE IS VERY LIMITED,
RENDERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SCENARIO LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR DDC, GCK, AND HYS WITH LOWERED CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED. HYS HAS BEEN IN MVFR THE PREVIOUS HOUR BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN. SOME SITES MAY DIP BACK INTO MVFR WITH CONTINUED
LOWERED CLOUDS, AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING THAT CHANCE AT A 20-40%. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (5-10 KTS) OUT OF THE NORTH/WEST TO START BEFORE
WEAKENING FURTHER AND BECOMING VARIABLE. AROUND 10Z LBL (AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE GCK) MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS REDEVELOP AND
MORE LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KBJ
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