946
FXUS63 KDDC 302200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH A CHANCE (10-30%) FOR MORE IN FAR SW KANSAS LATER TODAY
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLIP THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS HEADLINED BY A STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. ALOFT OVER THE CWA IS PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY MARGINAL HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE.
DESPITE THIS VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50/60S. SOME
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AS LIGHT WINDS WILL PAIR WITH SATURATED
AIR. THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE WILL PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THE
COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF ANY POTENTIAL FOG.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S. SOME
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FARTHEST WEST COUNTIES
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, WITH ENSEMBLES GIVING A 30-50% CHANCE.
EVEN IF THESE SHOWERS OCCUR, AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER (<0.1"). BEYOND
THESE CHANCES, THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. ALSO OVER THE
WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES HAVE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST.
IN THE VERY QUIET FORECAST CYCLE, NO WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH 32-34 DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
ONLY DAY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE TO APPROACH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IS ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF 15-20%, BUT
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE WEATHER RISK, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
MARGINAL AND FALL SHORT OF A RED FLAG WARNING. HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN
THE 80S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. THIS WILL HOLD INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A MID-WEEK COOLDOWN. ENSEMBLES ARE SPORADIC ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW DISSOLVING OVER THE ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES HAVE
CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 50-80% WITH
PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS UP TO 0.4" IN AREAS THAT RAIN OCCURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE AXIS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DISSOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SCATTERED MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY, HOWEVER HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PROHIBITING
MAXIMUM COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO WE
WILL KEEP ANY LOWER VISIBILITY OUT OF THE TAF ON THIS 00Z
ISSUANCE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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