516
FXUS63 KDDC 010445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
- DRY, WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY.
- AN APPROACHING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA AROUND
TUE/WED, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO, CANADA,
WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD UPSTREAM ATOP THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITIONAL, A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS NOTED MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AGREES ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALONG WITH
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. THE END RESULT WILL BE YET
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY AND DNVA OVERSPREADS THE AREA, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
ON SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ENS CONTROL INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME THE MAIN DRIVER OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS, YIELDING AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL
EARLY MAY DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KS AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUCH WARMER IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AS A STRONG LOW
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WAVE WILL BE VERY SLOW
MOVING GIVEN ITS CUT-OFF NATURE, ALLOWING THE WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DRAW CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA.
ALTHOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION WE GET CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF IS LESS THAN 0.5" FOR ALL AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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