434
FXUS63 KDDC 011637
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1137 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
- DRY, WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY.
- AN APPROACHING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA AROUND
TUE/WED, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO,
CANADA, WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD UPSTREAM ATOP THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ADDITIONAL, A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS NOTED
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
ALONG WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. THE END RESULT WILL BE YET
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY AND DNVA OVERSPREADS THE AREA, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S.
ON SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ENS CONTROL INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME THE MAIN DRIVER OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS, YIELDING AN ABSOLUTELY
BEAUTIFUL EARLY MAY DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KS AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A
TOUCH WARMER IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WAVE WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING GIVEN ITS CUT-OFF NATURE, ALLOWING THE WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DRAW CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION WE GET CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS
AS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS LESS THAN 0.5" FOR ALL AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FROM AROUND 22-1Z,
ENSEMBLES HAVE CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE MINIMAL IF THEY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (<10
KTS) AND PRIMARILY VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KBJ
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