256
FXUS63 KDDC 011735
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM 3-8 AM CDT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
- DRY, WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID/UPPER 80S ON
MONDAY.
- AN APPROACHING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA AROUND LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE UNCHANGED WITH PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, BUT IF THEY ARE OCCUR THEY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IN SCOPE AND AMOUNTS WITH LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE
REST OF TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND
APPROACH FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ONLY THE SCOTT
CITY/SYRACUSE HAS A >40% CHANCE VIA ENSEMBLES TO DIP TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE PRESENT FOR A VERY
BRIEF WINDOW RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY WARMING BACK UP.
THE LATEST RUN OF ENSEMBLES HAVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER, BUT CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF IS STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA; AS A RESULT ONE IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM 3-8 AM CDT. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS IF
NEEDED.
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SEE A VERY SHARP WARM-UP. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND INTO THE 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S FOR
MUCH OF SW KANSAS SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING A DAY OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING TO BRING WARMER, DRIER AIR
CONTRIBUTING TO THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLES STILL DEPICT A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
CONUS/CANADA BORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY
INDICATION IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DECLARATIONS OF CHANCES OR LOCATIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING A COOLDOWN WITH IT FROM HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
MONDAY TO HIGHS FIGHTING TO REACH THE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN TO A DRY AND WARM PATTERN AS HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN RETURN TO THE 80S WITH THE BIGGEST CONCERN LIKELY COMING VIA
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IN FAR SW KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FROM AROUND 22-1Z,
ENSEMBLES HAVE CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE MINIMAL IF THEY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (<10
KTS) AND PRIMARILY VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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