828
FXUS63 KDDC 020510
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KS TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- MUCH WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FAVORING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ATOP THE
CONUS, WITH A DEEP TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A RIDGE TO THE
WEST. DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES DNVA AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN END TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AS SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WINDS OVER OUR
AREA WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL INDUCE ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT TO KEEP
SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
ON SUNDAY, LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS, ENS CONTROL, AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST.
NEVERTHELESS, THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE'S
INFLUENCE AS PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND 10-20 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS PROMOTE A NOTICEABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SPIKING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD, MERGE WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY RENEWED RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES AS THE TROUGH PROCEEDS
EASTWARD. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD, AND A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND BEYOND. REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF QPF EXISTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS NBM POPS RISE INTO THE LIKELY (55-74%) AND DEFINITE (75-
100%) CATEGORIES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF
THIS UPPER WAVE AND THE ENSEMBLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ENGENDERS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST KS. WHILE
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE A DROUGHT BUSTING EVENT,
MEAN QPF FROM THE GEFS AND ENS IMPLY 0.25-0.5" OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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