356
FXUS63 KDDC 030430
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS, WITH THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS FAVORING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH
WEAKENING RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MATERIALIZING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. DAYTIME
SUNDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE, AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS SPIKE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF
THE ROCKIES WILL BE NEARLY ENTIRELY FLATTENED AS A STRONG CUT-OFF
LOW BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST. STILL, THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP EASTWARD MOMENTUM
DAYTIME TUESDAY, AND MERGE WITH THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF
THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR
EQUATORWARD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ON
TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROBUST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NBM POPS ARE
IN THE DEFINITE CATEGORY (75-100%) FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA, WITH LIKELY POPS (55-74%) EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALL THE
WAY INTO BARBER COUNTY. ENSEMBLE QPF MEANS PLACE THE HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS OF 0.75-1"+ ALONG AND ADJACENT TO A SYRACUSE TO HAYS LINE,
DECREASING WITH SOUTHEAST EXTENT TO 0.2-0.4" AROUND MEDICINE LODGE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY AND BEYOND, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING THE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE 12-17 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 27 KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING BACK DOWN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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