446
FXUS63 KDDC 031739
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE MID WEEK
- INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 0.5
INCH POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON SYNOPSIS HAS A DAMPENED RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CONUS LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS AIDING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND IS
LEADING TO STRONGER DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
FOR TONIGHT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. OVERNIGHT
WINDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5-10 MPH AND LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND
50S.
MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY. THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LEADING TO THE WARMEST OF THE AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST WILL ALSO HELP IN THE EFFICIENT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
MONDAY NIGHT THE POLAR JET IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL PUSH A STOUT COLD FRONT THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS. LATEST MODELS HAVE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MUCH
EARLIER WITH THE STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO AROUND 995 MB THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS ALL DAY THE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
IN THESE AREAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE MID POINT OF THE 500 MB TROUGH
AND BEST 700 MB LIFT WILL BE ENTERING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENSEMBLE
QPF OUTPUT IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST 0.5 INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO HAYS LINE.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF 40-80% OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH ALSO
REFLECTS THE BETTER SETUP FOR RAIN IN THESE AREAS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AT AROUND 0-1 (C)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE CHANCE OF ANY SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS HAS GONE DOWN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE MAY SNOWS ARE
FAIRLY UNCOMMON IN THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD SEE THE TROUGH EXIT AND WITH A MILD RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE WEST THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON FOR GCK, DDC, AND LBL AT
15-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 01Z AND STAY 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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