948
FXUS63 KDDC 040514
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
MINIMAL RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING AS THE SREF INDICATES A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES DOWNSTREAM OF A POSITIVELY-
TILTED CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS THE SYSTEM WELL OUT WEST APPROACHES, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WITHIN A LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, USHERING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S(F)) HINDERING INSTABILITY, SUFFICIENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (+110KT)
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 500 J/KG OR SO) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AS H5 VORT MAXIMA TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN
VICINITY OF THE I- 70 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NBM SHOWS A 10-20% PROBABILITY
OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.1 OF AN INCH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OUT WEST OPENS UP AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, CREATING AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, NOT TO MENTION A STRENGTHENING +120KT JET LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN EAST-
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THIS,
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THE NBM SUGGESTS A
60-80% PROBABILITY OF 24-HR QPF TOPPING 0.5 OF AN INCH WITH MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF A TROUGH AXIS ADVANCING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, HELPING
PUSH H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DESPITE EXPECTED INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS,
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S(F) WITH THE HREF PAINTING A
WIDESPREAD 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE 80F WITH
A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 85F IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLDER AIR SETTLING IN WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT GENERALLY AFTER 12-14Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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