138
FXUS63 KDDC 052331
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING RAINFALL EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 0.25-0.5 INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE
- A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
- HIGH PROBABILITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF FROST TO
HIGHWAY 283 FOR THURSDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
18Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS BOTH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH
EARLIER IN THE MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER,
AND NORTHEAST WINDS HAS KEPT THE DIURNAL HEATING AT BAY. A FEW
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN KEPT AT BAY TO THIS POINT.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST SHOULD CHANGE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGHS IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTING IN NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS LIFT WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS AREA OF LIFT
AND RAIN SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MOST PART SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING HOWEVER A FEW SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE A 2-3 HOUR STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 30-32 MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY LINE. GROUND ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND AND THE SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL HOWEVER THE SNOW THAT DOES
FALL COULD AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS IF THE SNOWFALL COULD STICK.
WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER, EAST
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DAY OF VERY LITTLE
WARMING ESPECIALLY IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE MID 40S WHICH IS PRETTY COLD FOR EARLY
MAY. POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ANS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND A SERIES OF 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN SHOULD FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-6PM WEDNESDAY WITH
PROBABILITIES OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAIN HIGHEST (50-90%) ALONG AND
WEST OF A JOHNSON TO DODGE CITY TO HAYS LINE. 1 INCH POTENTIAL IS
ALSO IN THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO
WAKEENEY LINE (20-40%). FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE AMOUNT OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LESS SO 0.1-0.25 INCH IS
EXPECTED FROM A LIBERAL TO PRATT LINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE EXITING TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO NVA AND THIS SHOULD INTENSIFY A SURFACE HIGH BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS,
WIND AND RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BY SUNRISE WE
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO HAVE
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 32 DEGREES OR LESS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283. A 50-100% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES 32 DEGREES OR
LESS EXIST THERE. AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER THE
PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE IS THE GREATEST AS FORECAST LOWS OF 25-29
DEGREES ARE IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE COLD
AIR SHOULDN'T LAST LONG AS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BRING
IN MILDER AIR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
AND WET STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON WESTERN KANSAS. ALL FOUR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AIRPORTS (DDC, GCK, HYS, AND LBL) WILL SEE
AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH WORST OF AVIATION WEATHER AND IFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY FROM PRE-DAWN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY GCK AND DDC, AS CEILING WILL
PROBABLY FALL TO BELOW 500 FEET AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF STEADIER RAINFALL. FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD (00Z THURSDAY) AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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