146
FXUS63 KDDC 200538
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES (60-90%) FOR SW KANSAS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING
- WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS FAIRLY UNNOTEWORTHY ASIDE FROM A
POSITIVELY TILTED LOW-PRESSURE TOUGH STRETCHING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA. CLOSE TO THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS BUILT UP OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WINDS EASE AND TEMPERATURES DROP VIA RADIATIVE COOLING.
CLOUD COVER BUILDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING
TOO WARM WITH THE MAJORITY OF SW KANSAS STAYING IN THE 60S FOR A
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE SIGNIFICANT FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CYCLE
COMES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. VERY MARGINAL CHANCES BEGIN VIA ENSEMBLES AFTER
NOON. THE CHANCES UPTICK SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DESCENDING SOUTHEASTWARDLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-1". DESPITE CAMS HOLDING A
MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION REGIME, ENSEMBLES KEEP AMOUNTS FROM 0.1-
0.25" WITH A MAXIMA NEAR 0.5 INCH AROUND GARDEN CITY. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL TO START WITH ONLY BENIGN SHOWERS FORECAST
INITIALLY. ENSEMBLES ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENT AT OR ABOVE 90% FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE AMOUNTS NEAR A TRACE.
WHILE MOST OF THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BEFORE NOON THURSDAY, RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN WITH THE CLOUDINESS
AND RAIN, HIGHS AGAIN ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S ACROSS SW KANSAS
THURSDAY.
HIGHS BEGIN WARMING UP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND INTO THE
80S BY SUNDAY. THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE WARMER TREND
IN THE 80S. THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS OCCASIONAL POSSIBILITIES FOR
MORE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE CHANCES AND AGREEMENT IS LOW ENOUGH TO
WHERE IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE DECLARATIONS. HOWEVER, IN THE
WETTER CALMER PATTERN, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAINTAIN ABOVE
20% TO QUELL MOST FIRE WEATHER RISK. OTHER THAN NON-SEVERE
PRECIPITATION, LITTLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS NOTEWORTHY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH LOWERED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY WEAK
SURFACE HIGHS ALOFT ARE PRESENT TO START THE PERIOD; LIGHT WINDS (5-
15 KTS) OUT OF THE EAST ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. BY AROUND 2Z,
LOWERED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT OR AROUND
ALL STATIONS. PRIOR TO 6Z, ENSEMBLES KEEP CHANCES FOR <3K FT
CEILINGS AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BELOW 50%. HOWEVER, IT IS
VERY FEASIBLE THAT ONE MORE MULTIPLE SITES MAY SEE LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF PERIOD OWING TO ONE OR BOTH OF THESE
CONDITIONS AND FUTURE AVIATION FORECASTS WILL HAVE MORE REFINED
GUIDANCE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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