415
FXUS63 KDDC 211022
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
522 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, SCATTERED, AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT
- COOLER HIGHS UNTIL A WARM UP SUNDAY
- POTENTIAL MARGINALLY SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
THURSDAY EVENING
- MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN COLORADO. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE DEEPER
POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. CAMS HAVE MORE SHOWERS
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY, BUT THE FOCUS IS ON THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMETHING ORGANIZED
COMING OUT OF COLORADO WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE EVENING. THE HRRR
HAS HELD A PROMINENT SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHILE THE
NAMNST DOES NOT. MODELED SOUNDINGS HAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS AND CAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG. CURRENT TIMING FORECAST IS
AROUND 6 PM IF THOSE STORMS OCCUR. BOTH MARGINAL HAIL AND WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN IF THE ORGANIZATION DOES NOT MATERIALIZE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES, ARE
FORECAST.
FRIDAY'S FORECAST WILL RESEMBLE THURSDAY A GREAT DEAL ALBEIT
WARMER. LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. BY AFTERNOON/EVENING, A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
PRESENT ONLY THIS TIME NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. MOST OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS PROGGED IN OKLAHOMA, BUT THE NAMNST HAS
SOME STORMS REACHING INTO KANSAS. LESS SHEAR IS PRESENT, BUT
MODELED SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES UP TO
1500 J/KG WITH MARGINAL WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AFTER THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT, LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE SATURDAY BEING WETTER AND WETTER WITH NOW A 30-40%
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS. MORE PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BEFORE THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO SUNDAY. WITH HOW LIGHT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MANIFEST, DETAILS ARE SPARSE.
ON SUNDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OBSCURING SW KANSAS,
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL HOLD THIS TREND WITH HIGHS SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE 80S
AND APPROACHING THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES ALSO
HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO SW KANSAS
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, NO
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, NO DAYS WITH PARTICULARLY HIGH
WINDS, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ABOVE 25% QUELLING NEARLY
ALL FIRE WEATHER RISK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, CURRENTLY AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS, IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AS
SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS A RESULT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT
AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z TODAY. AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING THE CEILINGS WILL RISE TO 2000 TO 3000 FT
AGL BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z TODAY. FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
EXPECTED DISSIPATE WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO 6 MILES OR
MORE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...BURGERT
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