960
FXUS63 KDDC 220441
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%)
SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE, BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SREF INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES TONIGHT, SUPPORTING AN
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM,
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S(F), PROVIDING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG, THE
HIGHEST OUT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. COMBINED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS EJECTING H5 VORT MAXIMA INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
DRYLINE THEN DRIFT EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY SOME CAMS AND THE HREF
PAINTING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN
INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE BY LATE EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT AND MARGINAL SOUTHWESTERLIES (+50KT)
ALOFT. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUGGESTED
BY THE HREF POINTING TO ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF
NUDGING OVER 0.1 OF AN INCH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BREAK FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN SATURDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH, SETTING UP AN EAST-
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AS H5 VORT MAXIMA KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES,
COINCIDINGWITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM INDICATING A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR
QPF TOPPING 0.25 OF AN INCH BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THE COOLER AIR
MASS THAT DOMINATED THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE LOWER/MID 50S(F), LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S(F) ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THE HREF
PAINTS A WIDESPREAD >90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 60F TO THE LOWER 60S(F) IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF SLIPPING BELOW 60F IS ONLY 30-50%.
DESPITE A COLD FRONT EDGING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY, EXPECT
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS UP INTO
THE 70S(F) WITH THE HREF SHOWING AN 80-90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70F BY LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE OVERNIGHT,
VARIED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES BESIDES LBL HAS
SEEN LOWERED CEILINGS IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND THIS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE AROUND 16Z. SOME LIGHT AND VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST, BUT THE SPATIAL EXTEND HOLDS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY.
AROUND 16Z, THE SHOWERS AND CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR RETURNING
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL GO FROM
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO FROM THE NORTH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KBJ
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