608
FXUS63 KDDC 220501
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) VERY
LATE SATURDAY
- WARMUP SUNDAY AND ONWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
- ENSEMBLES HINT AT MORE RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A FEW SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WERE PRODUCED PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LINE IN AND AROUND SCOTT
CITY. CAMS HAVE THE LINE CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE AND MOSTLY
DISSIPATE BY 1 AM. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING, BUT WITH VERY SATURATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, PATCHY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP IN FOG-PRONE AND LOW-LAYING
AREAS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH A DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES.
APPROACHING NOON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH WITH A
BREAK IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SEE HIGHS BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE
70S. THE FOCUS WILL HINGE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TOMORROW
EVENING. CAMS STILL HOLD VAST DISAGREEMENT BUT HAVE ALL TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH, WEST, AND LATER IN THE EVENING. NOW THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THERE IS STILL SKEPTICISM ON THE HIGH-
END STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS WITH LITTLE CAPE AND SHEAR TO WORK
WITH; MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE <500 J/KG AND <25 KTS RESPECTIVELY.
STORMS WILL NEED TO FORM IN THE PANHANDLES AND MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
INTO KANSAS FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. THAT SAID IT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
CAMS HAVE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AS AGAINST
CAMS HAVE A POOR GRASP OF THE PATTERN WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH
EACH OTHER OR EVEN RUN-TO-RUN. EVEN IN THE WETTEST OUTCOME,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE (0.05"). SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A BIT. IT WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WHAT SUNDAY
STARTED WITH MORE DRY DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE 80 DEGREE DAYS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALONG WITH THAT, ENSEMBLES PAINT MOST
OF THE AREA AT AROUND A 30% FOR PRECIPITATION. MORE DETAILS WILL BE
GAINED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS BETTER RESOLVED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE 25% THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE OVERNIGHT,
VARIED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES BESIDES LBL HAS
SEEN LOWERED CEILINGS IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND THIS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE AROUND 16Z. SOME LIGHT AND VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST, BUT THE SPATIAL EXTEND HOLDS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY.
AROUND 16Z, THE SHOWERS AND CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR RETURNING
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL GO FROM
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO FROM THE NORTH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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