576
FXUS63 KDDC 230959
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
459 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE
- HIGHS WILL WARM UP TO THE 80S SUNDAY WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED BY A DEEP
TROUGH THAT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. NEARER TO THE
SURFACE, THERE ARE TWO ROBUST SURFACE LOW PRESSURES IN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN TEXAS; BOTH SYSTEMS HAS PRODUCED STORMS THIS EVENING.
WHILE WESTERN KANSAS SITS UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE, THE FORECAST FOCUS
IS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. CAMS
CONTINUE TO HAVE NO AGREEMENT ON THE TEXAS STORMS' NORTHWARD
PROPAGATION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE. AT THE ABSOLUTE EXTREME END,
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF SW KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT THIS SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER ONLY AROUND 15%.
SOME VERY WEAK AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND CONTINUE NEAR
THE BORDER. MODELED SOUNDINGS STILL LACK CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
REPRESENTATIVE OF A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AND THE SPC HAS RESPONDED
BY PULLING THE MARGINAL RISK OUT OF THE CWA. THAT SAID, EVEN WITHOUT
SEVERE WEATHER NON-SEVERE STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH ENSEMBLES AT AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE. OUTSIDE OF
LOCALIZED AREAS, PLACES THAT SEE RAIN COULD EXPECT AMOUNTS AT AROUND
0.1-0.2"; HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL NOT RECEIVE
AND ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERED FORECAST TO TAPER OFF
BY AROUND NOON. AFTERWARDS, SATURDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANT AS DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S, WITH MONDAY'S HIGHS EVEN BREACHING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK (30-50% CHANCES VIA ENSEMBLES). THIS DRY PATTERN
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND SWEEPING DOWN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ONLY WITH A WETTER PATTERN. EVERY DAY
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY WITH VARYING 30-60% CHANCES FROM LONG RANGED
ENSEMBLES. THE SPECIFIC COVERAGE AND INTENSITY STILL HOLDS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN PROPERLY RESOLVED
YET. THE SAME ENSEMBLES KEEP ACCUMULATIONS QUITE LOW BELOW 0.25"
WITH AVERAGES CLOSER TO 0.05-0.1". AS PER USUAL, SOME AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MORE RAIN THAN OTHER AND MANY OTHER AREAS WILL RECEIVE
NOTHING. AN EARLY LOOK AT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE THAT THESE
STORMS WILL TEND TO BE NON-SEVERE, ALTHOUGH WITH THIS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS FAR OUT DETAILS CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
OUTSIDE OF BENIGN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD, NO ACTIVE
WEATHER OR HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. NO EXTREME TEMPERATURES, NO DRY
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (<20%), AND NO VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO THE 3500 AND
6000 FEET AGL RANGE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY OF STORMS NEAR ANY TERMINAL REMAINS LESS THAN 30
PERCENT, SO NO PROB30 MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAF.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LIBERAL WHERE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION HERE SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS
BUT WILL MAKE FINAL CALL HERE CLOSER TO ISSUANCE TIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...BURGERT
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