045
FXUS63 KDDC 240423
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1123 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING TODAY
- WARMER AND DRIER SUNDAY
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES ALL NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER
REGION IS SPARKING OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE DAY CONTINUES AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.
WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS SUNDAY WITH SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT. THE NET RESULT IS A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
LOOKING AT THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK, THE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS ARE FORECASTING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES. SEVERAL GEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS
COMES TRUE AS OUR DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND GET WORSE IN
CATEGORY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRIMARILY SOUTH
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT 5-15 KTS. THE ONLY
AVIATION CONCERN WOULD BE STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ESPECIALLY AT HYS. HOWEVER WITH ENSEMBLE CHANCES BELOW 30%, THEY ARE
EXCLUDED FROM THE TAFS. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON
THE STORM CHANCES AND RESULT IN BETTER AVIATION GUIDANCE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KBJ
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