345
FXUS63 KDDC 240513
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM UP SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS MOSTLY INTO THE 80S FOR THE
NEXT WEEK
- A MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY NEAR
HAYS
- NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK HAS SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DEPICTED BY ENSEMBLES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED ALOFT BY A DEEP
TROUGH AS IT IT HAS TRAVERSED TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SW KANSAS AND INHIBITED
STORMS IN COLORADO AND PANHANDLES FROM REACHING INTO KANSAS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER-WISE; ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN FOG-PRONE AREAS WITH SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL LEAD OFF A MUCH WARMER STRETCH FOR SW KANSAS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. IN THE LAST DAY, CAM TRENDS HAVE SHARPLY UPTICKED IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY AROUND HAYS. SPC NOW HAS THEM IN A
MARGINAL RISK, EVEN THOUGH STORM CHANCES REMAIN PRIMARILY
CONDITIONAL. ENSEMBLES PLACE A 15-35% FOR MOST AREAS AROUND AN AXIS
STRETCHING FROM HAYS TO ELKHART. MODELED SOUNDINGS HOST AROUND 1000
J/KG CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30-40 KTS. CAMS DISAGREE
WILDLY ON WEATHER THE STORMS WILL FORM IN A MORE LINEAR REGIME OR IF
IT WILL BE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS UP NEAR HAYS. REGARDLESS
WITHOUT STORMS TRAINING OVER A SINGULAR AREA, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL AND ONLY A VERY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
THEY REST OF THE WEEKS IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH
VARYING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. EVEN MONDAY THAT WAS ORIGINALLY
PROGGED AS BONE DRY, NOW HOLDS A SLIM (10-30%) CHANCE VIA ENSEMBLES
FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MORE CHANCES FROM ENSEMBLES: 30-60% IN FAR
SW KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, WIDESPREAD CHANCES (20-50%) WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND CONTINUED INTERMITTENT SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION COMES FROM A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS THAT EITHER SEEM TO BE POORLY RESOLVED OR
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. REGARDLESS,
ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY
CALM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ARE FORECASTED ABOVE 20% HAMPERING
MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MOSTLY STEADY IN
THE 80S WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO DIVERGE FROM THIS BEING ON
MONDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BREACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF
SW KANSAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRIMARILY SOUTH
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT 5-15 KTS. THE ONLY
AVIATION CONCERN WOULD BE STORMS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ESPECIALLY AT HYS. HOWEVER WITH ENSEMBLE CHANCES BELOW 30%, THEY ARE
EXCLUDED FROM THE TAFS. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON
THE STORM CHANCES AND RESULT IN BETTER AVIATION GUIDANCE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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