932
FXUS63 KDDC 261017
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
517 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER US THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE PUSH
EASTWARD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO OOZE
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN COMBINATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
FOR STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TOMORROW. THE
NBM DEPICTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW
SPC AND AI MODELS DO NOT HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ANY OF THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEN
REACH INTO THE LOW 80S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST
WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS THEN SHOW SOME DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
(8000FT OR HIGHER) DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z. A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (<30%) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND
LIBERAL LATE TODAY. EARLY TONIGHT A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER (LIBERAL AREA). AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY THE CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DECREASE AND
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 4000FT AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN BELOW 1500 FT AGL AFTER 09Z, WITH AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING. HAYS WILL STAY NORTH OF THIS MAIN ACTIVITY,
WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL NOT IMPACTING
THAT TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST, STARTING AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
EARLY TODAY AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 18Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
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