721
FXUS63 KDDC 261602
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1102 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FA SHOULD BE DRY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AND SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW. A WEAK 500 HPA LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW AND PWAT'S SHOULD BE OVER 1.0" BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND THE INCREASE MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST CAMS SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE REGION. PRACTICALLY EVERY MEMBER OF
BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS ALL HAVE QPF. THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
THOUGH OF WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL FOLLOW. THE
OFFICIAL QPF FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER (BUT WELCOMED RAINS) WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONTINUED
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR RAIN AMOUNTS, LREF IS SHOWING NEAR 100%
CHANCE FOR 0.25, 80% CHANCE FOR 0.50", AND A 60% CHANCE OF
1.00". FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT KLBL LATE TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING. DON'T THINK IT WILL BE DENSE THOUGH. VFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL TONIGHT. BY MORNING, LOWER CIGS (MVFR TO IFR) ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SE/S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AROUND 5-15 KT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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