159
FXUS63 KDDC 262251
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
551 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FA SHOULD BE DRY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AND SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW. A WEAK 500 HPA LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW AND PWAT'S SHOULD BE OVER 1.0" BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND THE INCREASE MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST CAMS SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE REGION. PRACTICALLY EVERY MEMBER OF
BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS ALL HAVE QPF. THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
THOUGH OF WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL FOLLOW. THE
OFFICIAL QPF FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER (BUT WELCOMED RAINS) WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONTINUED
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR RAIN AMOUNTS, LREF IS SHOWING NEAR 100%
CHANCE FOR 0.25, 80% CHANCE FOR 0.50", AND A 60% CHANCE OF
1.00". FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR KLBL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES KLBL
AFTER 18Z, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
AT KGCK AND KDDC, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
15-18Z WHEN THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO STAY
VFR AND THEN POSSIBLY LOWER TO MVFR AT KDDC AND KGCK LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KHYS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH
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