311
FXUS63 KDDC 102242
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
542 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
- A SIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
- A WET AND COOLER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY FRONT MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH
LEAVING WINDS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT I
BELIEVE THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IF STORMS FORM THIS EVENING.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE 90S WITH AROUND 100 DEGREES
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60S DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS OR TWO
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO GET A
BETTER SENSE OF TIMING AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY, MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES SATURDAY, 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN BACK INTO
THE 90S BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS LOOK TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AT
LBL AND DDC IN PARTICULAR, LEADING TO LLWS CONDITIONS WITH 55 TO
60 KNOTS AT ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE IN SPEED TO 22 TO 28 KNOTS SUSTAINED BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH A NARROW AXIS OF STRATUS MAY CLIP THE HYS
TERMINAL, PER INDICATIONS OFF THE HREF MODEL, ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR WORSE FLIGHT CATEGORY REMAINS TOO LOW AT
HYS TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ090.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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