366
FXUS63 KDDC 112303
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING AS AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST
LIKELY NOT SEVERE
- WET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOST LIKELY
SOUTH
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH THE
WIND DIRECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TOMORROW MORNING BUT MOST
PLACES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SLIDE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TOMORROW NIGHT. SPC CURRENTLY DOESN'T SHOW
ANY CHANCES OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THEY PLACE A MARGINAL RISK IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING BUT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY I BELIEVE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BUT HAVE KEPT
THE NBM POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF PREVIOUS
STORMS IF WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION. A DRIER PATTERN
EMERGES BY MID NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY REACHING INTO THE 70S. WE THEN WARM UP
INTO THE 80S TUESDAY WITH 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH 60S
RETURNING THEREAFTER. LOW 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE EVENING, TURNING MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
5 TO 15KT OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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