517
FXUS63 KDDC 121825
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SW KANSAS
TONIGHT
- MORE STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND BARBER COUNTY
- A VERY PLEASANT AND MILD SUNDAY BEFORE A WARM-UP TO TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROUGH IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN STRETCHES DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH IMPOSING OVER THE CWA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AFTER A BREEZIER YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH THE FOCUS BEING ON THE STORM POTENTIAL
ARRIVING TONIGHT.
CAMS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THE CONVECTION TONIGHT
IN INTENSITY, ORGANIZATION, AND COVERAGE. MODELED SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM HAVE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT
AROUND 35 KTS. MOST OF THE CAMS HAVE STORMS INITIATING IN EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE EARLY EVENING AND ORGANIZING INTO A MCS REPRESENTING
A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES INTO KANSAS AROUND 7-8 PM. FROM
THERE, TREMENDOUS DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT BETWEEN RUNS. SOME HAVE IT
DIVING SOUTH QUICKLY LIKE THE RRFS, SOME HAVE AGGRESSIVE EXPANSIONS
AND ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE AREA LIKE THE HRRR, AND THE NAMNST
KEEPS THE STORMS UNORGANIZED AND COLLAPSING SHORTLY AFTER ENTERING
KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PREDICTING A PRECISE PATHING IS QUITE
DIFFICULT, WITH AN AGGREGATE BEING THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS BEING
AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING LINEAR AND
STRETCHING EAST INTO THE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
BY AROUND 10 PM. BY THAT POINT, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAK AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. INITIALLY IF STRONG
INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN FORM AND MATURE EARLY IN THE EVENT, ALL
HAZARDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SW KANSAS ALBEIT OF VERY MARGINAL
INTENSITY. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PRIMARILY THREAT
WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH. IT IS VERY
CONTINGENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORMS GET AND HOW WELL THEY CAN
ORGANIZE, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN THE
FORECASTED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF THAT
STRENGTH.
SATURDAY'S CONVECTION FORECAST SEEMS ALMOST AS MESSY AFTER HIGHS
FORECASTED IN THE 90S AND APPROACHING 100 NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
MODELS HAVE A BOUNDARY STALLING FROM ROUGHLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION SW KANSAS SEES. CURRENT CAM RUNS HAVE SOME
STORMS DETACHING AND MOVING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND IMPACTING THE
AREA, BUT THAT WOULD ALSO BE IN THE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THEY MAY BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHORT-LIVED. WITH MODEST
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ARE ONES THAT ARE ABLE TO STAY IN THE MOVE FAVORABLE AIR NEAR
BARBER COUNTY. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN AROUND 7-8 PM ALTHOUGH CAMS
VARY FROM AROUND 5-9 PM FOR INITIATION. AGAIN WINDS FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE
WINDS.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SUNDAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S. ENSEMBLES HOLD AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR BENIGN
PRECIPITATION IN FAR SW KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL SHARPLY WARM BACK UP WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE A
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGITS BEFORE EASING BACK DOWN INTO THE 90S TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL ON TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE AMPLE UNCERTAINTY IT
IS MERELY SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF. WEDNESDAY WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES HAS FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEING VERY DRY WITH
SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO QUELL MOST OF THE
FIRE WEATHER RISK ALTHOUGH BASIC PRECAUTIONS MAY STILL BE
NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH FORECASTED CONVECTION MAY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTH
WIND AT AROUND 15 KTS IS EXPECTED. AROUND 1-2Z, CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM COLORADO. THE NEXT FEW HOURS
UNTIL AROUND 8-10Z, THE CONVECTION MAY IMPACT ALL SITES WITH LOWERED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CAMS HAVE VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH SOME
LIKE THE HRRR SHOWING AN ORGANIZED MCS WHILE OTHERS LIKE THE NAMNST
HAS MORE LIMITED SCATTERED CONVECTION. AT NO GIVEN HOUR DOES
ENSEMBLES HAVE A >30% CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER AT A SITE EXCEPT LBL
AT AROUND 4Z. AS A RESULT, THEY ARE THE ONLY ONE WITH TS IN THE TAF
ALTHOUGH ALL OR NO SITES MAY EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH,
AND SHIFT WINDS DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE NORTH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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