538
FXUS63 KDDC 131704
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT USHER IN MUCH COOLER,
MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
CULMINATING IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TODAY WILL BE A HOT ONE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S. LOW 100S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. IN FACT, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBER COUNTY,
WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A HEAT
INDEX OF AROUND 105F. OTHERWISE, A PREFRONTAL TROF WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TIME. BEHIND THIS TROF, A
STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
IT ALONG THE TROF. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE FRONT
COULD SPARK OFF SOME STORMS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS IN
THE CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS TO KEEP THE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM POPS WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. FORECAST
SKEW-T/LOG-P'S DO SUGGEST SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF
THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. LOWS HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE COOLER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.
SUNDAY WILL BE AS NEAR AS A PERFECT WEATHER DAY AS YOU ARE GOING
TO GET IN JUNE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LIGHT
WINDS. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT AS THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK IS GOING
TO TREND MUCH HOTTER AND BE MORE TYPICAL OF WEATHER IN THE
MONTH OF JUNE.
FOR MONDAY ONWARD, THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS SUGGEST MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A DRY
FORECAST AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES PREVAILING FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY FORECAST IS WEDNESDAY. LOW 100S
LOOKS LIKELY. IN FACT, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING ABOUT A 30%
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 100F WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH AND WOULD BET THAT THOSE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS
WEDNESDAY DRAWS NEAR. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE ENS DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. POST FRONTAL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS
AROUND DDC, GCK, AND HYS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z AND LBL BETWEEN
00Z-03Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AROUND 22Z AND COULD LEAD TO VCTS FOR LBL AND DDC BETWEEN
22-01Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-13Z WITH
CLOUD CEILINGS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ090.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TATRO
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