636
FXUS63 KDDC 132200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO
LARNED LINE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- 100 DEGREE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
18Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE 500-700 MB RANGE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND A SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE LOW WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LOCATED FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY,
KS TO SPRINGFIELD, CO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IS
CAUSING EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 90S
AND WE SHOULD BE ON OUR WAY TO FORECAST HIGHS OF NEAR 100 BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SHORT TERM MODELS AND CAMS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE US-56 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT 700 MB
SHORTWAVE IN THIS AREA WE SHOULD SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE (DEW
POINTS 60 AND ABOVE) NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5
PM. SKEW T SOUNDINGS SHOW DCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN OUR FAR EAST ZONES TO BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. STORMS
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT THAT THE HAIL THREAT
WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AND THEN THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WILL TAKE OVER. WITH THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FRONT
THIS SHOULD LINE UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK THAT IS
LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO LARNED LINE. POST FRONTAL
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INCREASING POST FRONTAL GUSTS
TO 40-50 MPH AROUND THE DODGE CITY AREA THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL
ROUND OF STORM SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY AROUND 10 PM AND THEN A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS THAT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY SUNRISE.
WITH THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE MUCH THUNDER WITH IT.
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY BOTH DAYS. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN
ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
INTO KANSAS HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SO I KEPT POPS AROUND 10-20%.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLES SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE STARTING ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE CORE OF THE HOTTER AIR SHOULD ENTER INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-34 (C) RANGE. NBM
MEAN MAXT ON WEDNESDAY IS IN THE 102-105 RANGE AND THE 75% IS IN THE
106-108 RANGE. THIS LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE WE WILL HAVE ONE OF
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT EVENT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME IN FOR
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. IT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KGCK AT THIS
POINT AND WILL PASS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD.
TSRA WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE TEMPO AND CB GROUPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. GUSTY WINDS OF 50+ KT COULD BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS TURN +TSRA. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
AT THIS POINT. WILL WATCH AND AMEND IF SEVERE WIND TRENDS BECOME
APPARENT. OTHERWISE, GUSTY N TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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