562
FXUS63 KDDC 141651
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1151 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PLEASANT CHANGE SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD HEAT OF 100-105.
- THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER MILDER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AS CLOSE TO PERFECT FOR THE
MONTH OF JUNE AS YOU ARE GOING TO GET. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S. HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THOUGH, BUT OTHER THAN THAT, A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR
TODAY. WINDS WILL START OUT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY BUT WILL
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, SO LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE 50S.
THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY AS WELL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THE NET RESULT IS
LIGHT WINDS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND HIGHS PEAKING AROUND
80F. THE NBM DOES HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES,
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO. SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREATS DURING THE EVENING.
ON TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DRAPE ITSELF ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED EVENING STORMS. THE
NBM DOES HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL START TO INCREASE
TUESDAY WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80SF TO AROUND 90F.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG EVENING STORMS, AS FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P'S DO SUGGEST
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, 500 HPA HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO
START TO INCREASE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30SC. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION OF VERY HOT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE NBM IS
FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 101F-103F RANGE. IN FACT, THE
ENS DOES SHOW 80-100% PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 100F
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD TOO WITH
VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN OVER NEXT WEEKEND PER THE
ENS. IN FACT, SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE CHANCE POPS THE NBM HAS AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WE SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS IN
GENERAL AROUND 12 KTS OR LESS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY MORNING AND THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND HYS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ARE BELOW 30 PERCENT SO LEFT THE PROB30
WORDING OUT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TATRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page