394
FXUS63 KDDC 150525
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TODAY.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING EAST
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATE TODAY AS THE SREF INDICATES A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA CYCLING
SOUTHEAST OFF A RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST, AND
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE
RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS
WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, INTRODUCING
AN INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WITH MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING UPWARD OF 1000 TO POTENTIALLY
1500 J/KG. DESPITE A LESS THAN ROBUST FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
COLORADO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING. AS SUGGESTED BY THE HREF, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST OF A SCOTT CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE
LINE WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1
OF AN INCH BY LATE EVENING. DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY UNDER A WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHERLIES RETURN BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 80F, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S(F). THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH THE
HELP OF PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES, PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO THE
MID 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 13-15Z AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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