048
FXUS63 KDDC 160431
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1131 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL
- 100 DEGREE WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
18Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS LEADING TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. A DEVELOPING 700 MB SHORTWAVE IS
OCCURRING IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND AT THE SURFACE A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL COLORADO
IS LEADING TO THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO SHOULD MOVE INTO AREAS
FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STORM
ACTIVITY IN COLORADO SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA AS THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE A
SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE 500-
700MB SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM AROUND SUNSET TO JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FORM ALONG A
SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY LINE AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40
RANGE AND AROUND 1000 CAPE A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL LIKELY QUARTER SIZE OR LESS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN EASTERN KANSAS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACH TO AROUND 24 (C). BY
LATE AFTERNOON A FEW SPOTTY STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY AS AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A SUBTLE
700 MB WAVE. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS SHOULD BE FARTHER
EAST IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE WAVE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BUT THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE COLD FRONT MOVING
FASTER THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND THE COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PUSH THE AREA OF
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGHS OF 100-105 STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK IN
THESE AREAS AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 100 ARE AT 50-70%.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND WE MAY SEE CONVECTION IN PRATT AND BARBER COUNTIES. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLER AIR SETTLES IN WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
VARIABLE GENERALLY AFTER 11-13Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page