733
FXUS63 KDDC 160511
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST.
WHAT LINGERING RAIN CHANCES (<20%) STILL EXIST WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY UNDER A WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS INDICATED BY THE SREF. PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT, PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING
STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP ALIVE A MINIMAL SHOT AT SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE HREF, ONLY SHOWING
A 20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS A SMALL
AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. A SIMILAR SETUP EXISTS
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP USHER A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A TRIGGER POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM INDICATING A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR
QPF TOPPING 0.1 OF AN INCH IN A CONFINED AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WASHES OUT AFTER MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLIES TO RE-ESTABLISH BY MID/LATE-AFTERNOON AND HELPING
PUSH H5 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE HREF PAINTS A BETTER
THAN 90% WIDESPREAD PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85F AND
A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 90F IN AREAS
NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 90S(F) FARTHER SOUTH. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. WITH THE NBM SHOWING
A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 95F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 100F IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
VARIABLE GENERALLY AFTER 11-13Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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