055
FXUS63 KDDC 302208
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
THE 18Z KDDC RAOB HAS SOME INSIGHT FOR US. FIRST, THE PWAT IS HIGH
AT 1.56". THIS IS BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND MAXIMUM VALUE.
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SECOND, THE RAOB IS NEARLY SATURATED FROM 557 HPA TO 234
HPA. THERE IS A DRY LAYER AT THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW THIS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE NOTION OF DAMAGING WINDS (MICROBURSTS) AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. CAPE VALUES ARE MODERATE AT 1000-2000 J/KG. THE SOUNDING
HAS ABOUT 895 J/KG OF DCAPE, WHICH IS PROBABLY HIGHER NOW WITH ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL WARMING. THEREFORE, ALL THIS TOGETHER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KT. BULK SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AT 25 KT, SO SUPERCELLS ARE PROBABLY LESS LIKELY THAN
LINE SEGMENTS. THEREFORE, SOME HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY THREAT.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AT THIS TIME AND THIS
THREAT IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE,
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP THIS EVENING WITH THE SREF
INDICATING AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN VICINITY
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH, DISLODGING THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES AHEAD
OF A RETREATING DRYLINE WILL HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS PUSHING
WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F, PROVIDING AMPLE INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON, H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE, TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY CAMS AND THE LATEST HREF SHOWING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR
QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN AS
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A WARMER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE AREA, NOT TO MENTION SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE
60S(F) TO NEAR 70F. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 70S(F).
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 90S(F) WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HREF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING
90F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
GENERALLY AFTER 01-03Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SUGDEN
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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