794
FXUS63 KDDC 010420
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE,
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP THIS EVENING WITH THE SREF
INDICATING AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN VICINITY
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH, DISLODGING THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES AHEAD
OF A RETREATING DRYLINE WILL HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS PUSHING
WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F, PROVIDING AMPLE INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON, H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE, TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY CAMS AND THE LATEST HREF SHOWING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR
QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN AS
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A WARMER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE AREA, NOT TO MENTION SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE
60S(F) TO NEAR 70F. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 70S(F).
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 90S(F) WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HREF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING
90F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
21Z ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS, THOUGH ANY TERMINAL IMPACT WOULD
NOT BE MOST LIKELY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS. HYS AND GCK HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THESE
STORMS, WHILE DDC AND HYS HAVE LOWER CHANCES GIVEN WEAKENING
TREND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THOUGH IF STORMS DO HAPPEN TO REACH
THOSE LOCATIONS, IT WOULD BE AFTER 02Z THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BENNETT
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