468
FXUS63 KDDC 020425
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS (50-70% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY EXISTS AGAIN TODAY WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN SITUATED ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK BACK UP
THIS EVENING WITH THE SREF INDICATING ANOTHER SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 2500
TO 3000 J/KG, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SAID H5 VORT MAXIMA INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WITH
STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST CAMS AND HREF SUGGEST THIS BY INDICATING A 30-50%
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. A SIMILAR SET UP IS FORECAST
THURSDAY.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH
EXPECTED RAIN COOLED AIR AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUT. WITH THE HREF
SHOWING A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 70F IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO ONLY A 10% PROBABILITY OF SLIPPING BELOW
70F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S(F) WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OUT WEST. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 90S(F) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF GCK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN FROM THESE
STORMS IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 21Z, BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY AWAY FROM
DIRECT IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS, THEREFORE, LEFT OUT MENTION OF
STORMS AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS. WITH NEW DATA LATER THIS
MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PERHAPS A MENTION OF STORMS
WOULD BE NEEDED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BENNETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page