028
FXUS63 KDDC 021013
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
513 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF ROUTE 283; LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
- ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES; HOTTER FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY
WEST OF ROUTE 283. STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND TRACK INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THIS EVENING AFTER 21Z. WEAK FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT
WITH MUCAPE OF 2500+ J/KG AND DCAPE 1500+ J/KG, ANY STRONGER
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
AROUND QUARTER SIZE. A MRGL RISK IS MAINTAINED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH COMMON.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY MAKING A RETURN TO THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF THE HEAT AND STAY IN
SHADED AREAS AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MAY ONCE AGAIN COMMENCE LATE WEEK.
LATEST NBM POPS VARY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WIDE VARIABILITY DAY TO DAY. THEREFORE, ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OF COVERAGE AND SEVERITY CONFIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL TAPER OFF BY 14Z, WITH THE LATEST MODELS AND
GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN DEVELOP BY 18Z
TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (CIGS 9000FT AGL OR HIGHER)
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 21Z TODAY
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN THE GARDEN CITY AREA
BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 02Z FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
DODGE CITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE STORMS SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY (<15%). SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z AS SKIES CLEAR.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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